Russian oil shipments by sea over the past four weeks have remained almost at the highest level in the last 16 months, as Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries force the redirection of supplies to export terminals and strain their effective capacity, writes Bloomberg.
According to ship tracking data, the average volume of oil shipments from Russian ports for the four weeks up to October 5 was 3.57 million barrels per day — only 80 thousand barrels less than the previous record in May 2024.
The sharp increase in shipments occurred after Ukraine intensified drone strikes on Russian refineries, hitting at least 15 plants in the European part of Russia over the past two months. Among the recent strikes was a hit on the Kirishi refinery on October 4, located more than 800 kilometers away. According to Reuters, the attack resulted in the suspension of the largest unit's operation.
According to estimates by JPMorgan Chase & Co, oil refining in Russia fell below 5 million barrels per day — the lowest since April 2022. Meanwhile, oil exports have increased by about 500 thousand barrels per day since mid-August.
At the same time, two of the three ports most likely to handle oil from non-operational refineries — Primorsk on the Baltic Sea and Novorossiysk on the Black Sea — are currently close to their capacity limits. Although the third port — Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea — has nominal capacity to increase exports, its cargo flows throughout the year have remained significantly below the peak level of October 2024.
Separately, European countries are increasing pressure on Moscow's shadow fleet of oil tankers. The 19th sanctions package is likely to include blacklisting more than 100 additional vessels and target refineries, traders, and petrochemical companies in third countries, including China. Separate measures are also being considered to impose tariffs on oil imported into the bloc by pipeline, in an attempt to encourage Hungary and Slovakia, the last European buyers of Russian oil, to cease their purchases.
Photo: Bloomberg