History is a cemetery of elites, according to Vilfredo Pareto. Some get Novodevichy, some Troekurovskoye, and some a distant and boundless Khovanskoye. The circulation of «elites» in Russia (let's still enclose this concept in quotes when applied to our country, to our Crème de la Kremlin) is constant, sometimes a small stream, sometimes a large flow. But it is in Russia that the governance of the country comes from the necropolis by the Kremlin wall, where exotic relics of mummies are still kept, and the radiation of Stalin's remains determines everything in politics. And the metaphor of a cemetery has not been so fitting for some features of the circulation of human material, where the entrance is through a door, and the exit is more and more often through a window.
Exception to the Rules
The discussion of Dmitry Kozak's resignation revolves around categories of morality. Some say: he is the only person among the top officials of the state who opposed the «special operation» (not counting diplomat Boris Bondarev, but that's a middle level of bureaucracy). Others: what's so special, don't make him an angel, he served the Putin system all his life and strengthened it. Well, Fyodor Raskolnikov also served, and then wrote a letter to Stalin. Fraga and Suarez served Franco, and then built democracy in Spain. Gorbachev emerged from the coat of the secretariat, and then the astrakhan hat of the Politburo of the CPSU Central Committee. Khrushchev danced at Stalin's night drinking parties, and then released people from the camps. «And nature knows no sinless ones», as Bulat Shalvovich said.
Important plots. But there is another point: Kozak left the system not through a window and not into a pre-trial detention center. At least, not yet. The system is absolutely ruthless towards those who have faithfully served it, to those who have photos in their office almost hugging Putin (not to mention Stalin and his, for example, tender attitude towards «Bukharik»). And here it made an exception. Which, of course, does not mislead those who would not even tell their own children that they are against the SVO, but in daylight faithfully serve the supreme commander and publicly talk about «victory». Kozak's case is an exception to the rules. As they say, «do not try to repeat» — you won't get a Kozakovsky choir...
February 19, 2025. President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin at the flower-laying ceremony at the monument to the first mayor of St. Petersburg Anatoly Sobchak. On the left in the background is the Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation Dmitry Kozak.
And no one repeats. Fear paralyzes the «elites», especially after the story with Roman Starovoit. Here he reports to Putin, here he stands next to Putin, here he is praised by Alaudinov, an infantryman of an infantryman, here is one of his appointments, here is another, here is evidence of accumulated wealth, by no means less than that of other ministers and members of the inner circles of varying degrees of proximity to the body. And what — did his Rotenbergs help him? Everyone is afraid of everything. The vassal of my vassal is not my vassal, the head of state might say, he is the main patron. No one stands up for anyone (except in rare cases), because it costs too much. Khrushchev, Malenkov, and Beria also walked, practically holding hands like kindergarteners, which did not prevent them from sweetly devouring each other. Because if you don't devour today, you'll be devoured tomorrow. The law of conservation of energy of the «elites».
«And the city thought: exercises are going on»
The meeting with Putin on September 15 on the budget was clearly gathered in an alarmist manner and included everyone who came to hand. Kremlinology could be revived, when Sovietologists, like astrologers, counted political stars by the location of leaders on the mausoleum. Here is the country's chief tax officer Daniil Yegorov in fashionable glasses, but with an insanely tense face — listening to Putin's banalities about what a budget is, as a revelation. Here is the tired Elvira Nabiullina, who was again pulled out to some meeting — she is the responsible person for all the troubles, although it's not the Central Bank's rate, but the SVO. Here is Sergey Kiriyenko — which means the PR component of presenting economic failures to the population is important. Why is Dmitry Grigorenko, the main digitalization officer in the government apparatus, here? Golikova, Manturov, where without them. Siluanov, Reshetnikov, Khusnullin, Oreshkin, trimmed like a football player. And here is Putin, who admits that nothing is growing with us. «Is this what we wanted?» he exclaims. Of course, this, what else. How can there be a target inflation of 4 percent with such unproductive and gigantic budget expenditures? How can the economy develop if it is hooked on the «budget stimulus» needle, and this stimulus goes into the military sphere, breeds millions of dependents, and produces double-digit growth rates in the production of «finished metal products».
Lately, Putin himself and his PR service emphasize that he doesn't sleep at night — he works. And again — they sat recently with the pragmatic manager Mikhail Mishustin half the night, thinking about the economy. Stalin also did not sleep at night, and with him all the «elite», including waiting in the echoing courtyard of the House on the Embankment for the black Marusyas. So things are so bad that daytime is not enough to solve economic problems? Those who sat at the meeting are potential scapegoats, a cemetery of elites, or were they just given a little shake-up? Why wasn't Defense Minister Belousov or Deputy Prime Minister Novak at the meeting, but for some reason, the governor of the Chelyabinsk region, Texler (clearly passing by and caught by the hand), and Moscow Mayor Sobyanin were present. Everything is flourishing for him, curbs with asphalt are still standing on end, auto and bike races every weekend, and you can't get into restaurants. You can go there, to the restaurants, right after the procession...
The next day the president was at exercises with the speaking name «West-2025» with the practice of using tactical nuclear weapons. But then why insist that there is no stagflation, no recession, and inflation — here is happiness — has dropped from 8.8 percent to 8.1? It's either one or the other — either the economy is developing and inflation is falling, or exercises are going on.
«You have to lie down tomorrow»
The circulation of elites has turned into a cycle of officials in the political nature when it became known that Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov is leaving for the vacant position of Chairman of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation (in less than two years, two heads of the highest court died), and his chair is taken by 65-year-old Alexander Gutsan. In Krasnov's case, everything is clear: he proved himself well in front of the system, without fear or reproach launched the process of nationalization (and therefore further redistribution of property), his department strictly maintained a prosecutorial bias in political processes, the declaration of the entire civilized world as «undesirable» reached Yale University. And in the position of Chairman of the Supreme Court, as the experience of the late Vyacheslav Lebedev showed, one can stay for decades. Or just a very long time, like, for example, in Soviet times Anatoly Volin (moved to the Supreme Court just from the position of Prosecutor General of the RSFSR, by the way, died at the age of 104) or Alexander Gorkin, or Lev Smirnov, who sentenced Andrei Sinyavsky and Yuli Daniel to real terms (though not comparable to today's, the late Soviet regime was softer than the current one). Gutsan, an experienced prosecutor, is already 65 years old, and he is being sent to the position of Prosecutor General at retirement age. Corporations of this type highly value when they are sent not a foreigner, but a person from their workshop — but for how long? Are they just plugging a personnel hole in the absence of a long-term candidate for such a high post?
Another personnel decision was made in the law enforcement system — Alexander Bastrykin's tenure as head of the Investigative Committee was extended for a year. Malicious tongues claim that Vasily Piskarev, the scourge of foreign agents and foreign influence in general, is claiming this post. By the way, a person from the prosecutor's system. In general, in this galaxy, the birth of «stars» is yet to come. However, in the Putin regime, the sum has long not changed from the rearrangement of terms — as the system was repressive, so it will remain. Unless the flywheel of political repression spins with even greater energy.
If we return to the main thing — that is, to the stagnating semi-military economy, then here the main war has already become quite banal. Quasi-media resources, including those with millions of audiences, like Solovyov's talk shows, are allowed to harshly criticize the Central Bank. There must be some kind of lightning rod in this fantastically economically illiterate discussion around Nabiullina's personality and the actions of the government and the national bank. In the system that has gone off the rails, small towers still exist, and some of them launch rumors — Peter Fradkov is predicted to replace the too iron lady (this is no longer the Investigative, but the hereditary committee of the Russian Federation — he is the son of former Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov), or Nikolai Zhuravlev from the Federation Council (headed «Sovcombank» in Kostroma), or Herman Gref. It's a pity the Kremlin's word-of-mouth radio does not consider Sergey Glazyev, for example, or Mikhail Delyagin. Or even better, some voo-doo economist appearing on television or in Telegram. Then the rate will be low, and everything will go haywire.
However, Putin has repeatedly persistently defended Nabiullina. This is a good sign: it means he does not want the economy to move from a stage of stagflation to a phase of uncontrolled collapse. And this, in turn, means that he wants to rule long and happily. So there will be no nuclear war? For some time, yes. But the same Putin recently noted that «our shift» will return from the fronts. That's where the competition of «elites» will begin with the replenishment of their cemetery named after Vilfredo Pareto. As it was said in an old Soviet joke, «there is one place at Novodevichy, but you have to lie down tomorrow».
* Andrey Kolesnikov is considered a «foreign agent» by the Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation.