Russia or people affiliated with it are launching reconnaissance drones over the routes that the US and its allies use to transport military cargo through eastern Germany. This gathers intelligence that can be used to enhance sabotage efforts and assist Russian troops in Ukraine. This was reported by The New York Times, citing data from American and other Western officials.
The flights, concentrated in the eastern German state of Thuringia, were also reported by the German publication WirtschaftsWoche. The publication wrote that Germany is increasing its drone defense systems at military bases. A representative of the German armed forces told the publication that drone flights near military bases pose a significant security threat. Journalists claim that at least some of the drones were manufactured in Iran, and German intelligence believes that at least part of the flights may have been conducted from ships in the Baltic Sea.
The Russian sabotage campaign has led to fires at warehouses in the UK, an attack on a dam in Norway, attempts to cut cables under the Baltic Sea, and a series of operations aimed at bringing the war in Ukraine closer to the center of Europe and undermining support for Kyiv.
According to experts and Western intelligence officials, after Russian acts of sabotage peaked last year, they have significantly decreased this year.
In a report published in March, Seth Jones of the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that the number of Russian attacks in Europe quadrupled from 2022 to 2023, and then tripled again from 2023 to 2024. However, in the first six months of this year, Jones noted a significant decline: only four incidents were classified as sabotage or attempted sabotage by Russia.
At least in part, this was the result of increased security in Europe and efforts by American and European intelligence agencies to prevent attacks. It may also be related to diplomatic activity aimed at negotiating a cessation of hostilities.
American intelligence provides European governments with information about possible sabotage actions, NYT sources reported. In particular, German intelligence was warned of a plot to send explosives or incendiary devices on cargo planes transiting through Germany. This warning led to the arrest of three Ukrainian citizens in Germany and Switzerland.