The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released a new annual report. One of the main conclusions is that the era of nuclear disarmament has definitively ended: all nuclear powers are actively modernizing their nuclear potential.
Almost all nine nuclear-armed states — the USA, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel — continued intensive programs in 2024 to modernize nuclear weapons, improving existing weapons and adding new versions.
Of the total global stockpile, estimated at 12,241 warheads in January 2025, about 9,614 were in military stockpiles for potential use. It is estimated that 3,912 of these warheads were deployed on missiles and aircraft, while the rest were in central storage. About 2,100 deployed warheads were in a state of high operational readiness on ballistic missiles.
Almost all these warheads belonged to Russia or the USA, but currently, China may also store some warheads on missiles during peacetime.
“The era of reducing the number of nuclear weapons in the world, which lasted since the end of the Cold War, is coming to an end,” said Hans M. Kristensen, senior researcher of the SIPRI Weapons of Mass Destruction program and director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). “Instead, we are witnessing a clear trend towards the growth of nuclear arsenals, the intensification of nuclear rhetoric, and the abandonment of arms control agreements.”
Russia and the USA together own about 90% of all nuclear weapons. According to SIPRI, China currently has at least 600 nuclear warheads. China's nuclear arsenal is growing faster than any other country, with about 100 new warheads appearing annually since 2023. By January 2025, China had completed or was close to completing the construction of about 350 new silos for intercontinental ballistic missiles in three large desert areas in the north of the country and three mountainous areas in the east.
North Korea also continues to prioritize its military nuclear program as a central element of its national security strategy. According to SIPRI, the country currently has assembled about 50 warheads and has enough material to produce another 40 warheads. In July 2024, South Korean officials warned that North Korea was in the “final stage” of developing “tactical nuclear weapons.” In November 2024, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called for the “unlimited” expansion of the country's nuclear program.
As noted in the report, with such an arms race, the circle of potential nuclear-armed countries expands, and monitoring compliance with nuclear non-proliferation conditions loses effectiveness.
SIPRI Director Dan Smith issued a stark warning about the risks of a new nuclear arms race: “There are signs that a new arms race is beginning, which carries much more risks and uncertainties than the previous one.” The rapid development and application of a range of technologies — for example, in the fields of artificial intelligence (AI), cyber capabilities, space resources, missile defense, and quantum technologies — are radically changing the understanding of nuclear capabilities, deterrence, and defense, thereby creating potential sources of instability.
Moreover, as artificial intelligence and other technologies accelerate decision-making in crisis situations, the risk of nuclear conflict arising from misunderstandings, miscalculations, or technical accidents increases.
Smith argues that with all the new technologies and variables, “the concept of who leads in the arms race will become even more uncertain and abstract than before.”
At the same time, nuclear weapons do not guarantee security and do not prevent conflicts, as demonstrated by the recent tension between India and Pakistan; nuclear weapons do not guarantee against escalations. They also carry a huge risk of escalation and catastrophic miscalculations, especially in the context of misinformation spread, and ultimately may lead to a deterioration of the population's security rather than its improvement, as noted in the report.