Negotiations in Saudi Arabia. Steve Witkoff, Marco Rubio, Mike Waltz, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Musaad bin Mohammed Al Aiban, Yuri Ushakov, and Sergey Lavrov, February 18, 2025. Photo: Evelyn Hockstein/Pool/AFP via Getty Images
Francis Fukuyama's article was published on the Persuasion community website on February 26 of this year, just before the scandalous meeting between Ukrainian President Zelensky and US President Trump in the Oval Office.
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Francis Fukuyama notes that at a time when the world is in the midst of a global struggle between Western liberal democracy and authoritarian government, the United States has betrayed its side and joined the authoritarian camp.
Fukuyama lists the «unthinkable» statements and accusations, as he puts it, that Trump has recently unleashed on Ukraine, accusing Ukraine of starting the war, not meeting Russian demands, stating that Ukrainians were wrong to resist Russian aggression.
Fukuyama believes that Trump did not come up with all this himself, but is repeating the words of Vladimir Putin, a man whom Trump admires.
Fukuyama was particularly affected by the fact that during direct negotiations between the American and Russian sides in Saudi Arabia last week, which took place without the participation of Ukraine and Europeans, Trump gave up two crucial advantages: he agreed with Russia's territorial gains to date and promised not to allow Ukraine into NATO. In return, as Fukuyama notes, Putin made no concessions. Francis Fukuyama writes that it was especially difficult for him to see this because he, along with his colleagues from Stanford, had been making great efforts for many years to support democracy in Ukraine.
A Huge Moral Choice is at Stake
The choice, according to Fukuyama, is between a young, fragile, and still imperfect liberal democracy in Ukraine and the latest incarnation of the former Soviet Union, whose collapse Putin regrets and has since tried to reverse. «Russia, — reminds Francis Fukuyama, — is a dictatorship where a single wrong word on social media can land you in prison for many years».
The author recalls how a few years ago, walking in Kyiv on the Maidan, he was delighted that a free society had formed in Ukraine, where one could criticize the government and vote for an opposition candidate (which Ukrainians did by electing Zelensky and his party «Servant of the People» in 2019). None of this exists in Russia, which has returned to a totalitarian dictatorship.
The Peace Agreement «Agreed» by the Trump Administration and Russia Will Not Bring Peace
Fukuyama suggests that the truce will only give Russia a respite during which it will rearm and attempt to seize all of Ukraine again.
Fukuyama is also concerned about the announcement by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth of an 8% annual reduction in the US defense budget over the next five years. He believes that the United States should do exactly the opposite and predicts that new threats may arise in the future for all countries on the periphery — Georgia, Moldova, the Baltic states, and Poland. America will be weakened and lose its ability to counter future great power threats if it weakens its involvement in NATO.
Francis Fukuyama
Francis Fukuyama does not believe that all this is being done to focus on security threats in the Far East. He considers the option of using US armed forces to defend Taiwan from China unrealistic and suggests that as soon as China imposes a blockade or prepares to invade Taiwan, Trump will start negotiations with Xi Jinping, as he does with Putin, which will effectively hand him control over the island. Then Trump will boast that he avoided war.
The US under Donald Trump Actively Joins the Authoritarian Camp
Francis Fukuyama reminds us that since 1945, the United States has supported a world order built on norms such as the non-use of military force to change borders and formal mutual defense agreements such as NATO and security treaties with Japan and South Korea. This system has achieved impressive successes in promoting peace, prosperity, and democracy.
Under Donald Trump, the US is not choosing isolationism but is actively joining the authoritarian camp, supporting right-wing authoritarian leaders around the world — from Vladimir Putin to Viktor Orban, from Nayib Bukele to Narendra Modi.
Francis Fukuyama believes that the US, which is now trying to absorb Panama and Greenland, will not be able to dissuade Russia and China from their attempts to conquer other countries.
According to Fukuyama, Trump's foreign policy steps fully align with his administration's assault on the principles of the rule of law domestically, the strengthening of executive power, and the weakening of the system of checks and balances in all areas.
Francis Fukuyama does not believe that the American people voted for such a country and such a world. «They simply, — he writes, — did not pay attention to it. However, now they will have to see the country and the world changed beyond recognition».
Francis Fukuyama — Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at Stanford University. His latest book is Liberalism and Its Discontents. He is also the author of the column «Frankly Fukuyama» in Persuasion.