«...everything that happened was an unprecedented anthropological tragedy, a genetic regression, the ultimate result of which was a brutal truncation of human potential».
Joseph Brodsky, «Catastrophes in the Air», 1984
Yusuf, from whom I buy vegetables and fruits in our neighborhood, is a politicized, realistic, and sadly ironic person. Previously, there was always a small TV in his shop, showing football around the clock. Now there is no TV, and Yusuf's comments on the international situation mainly come down to heavy sighs and meaningful glances. The economic situation is also not brilliant, but there is nothing to comment on here — the price tags in his store have experienced several vertical takeoffs over the past couple of months, far outpacing Rosstat's data. But even he commented on the latest outrageous event, especially since his nationality obliges him to evaluate it.
And not a single living soul in Azerbaijan itself and the diaspora, even before Putin's apologies, who admitted the very fact of the operation of «Russian air defense systems» at the time of the plane's attempted landing, doubted where the «external impact» on the crashed «Azerbaijan Airlines» plane came from. Moreover, it is believed that Russian airports did not allow the distressed aircraft to land to avoid responsibility: they hoped, they say, that the plane would fall into the Caspian Sea, and then — the ends in the water in the literal sense. Yusuf even claims that the plane was shot down «on purpose». I quietly, so that other, fortunately few, buyers do not hear, argue — that's the horror, that it was not on purpose, but by mistake. Now other airlines will also fear such mistakes.
Putin's Russia simply generates a sense of permanent insecurity and various threats 24/7. Including for its citizens: the shopping center in Vladikavkaz, on which a drone fell, is located in close proximity to the apartment where the mother of my very close friend lives. Putin, with his special military operation and its consequences, is already literally entering every home at the end of the third year of the hot phase of the anthropological catastrophe.
Heat pipeline breakthroughs, arson of bank branches, train derailments, drones overhead in the most unexpected points of the Russian Federation, individual terrorism, which is increasingly, at least according to official reports, being prevented by the authorities. Finally, the massive environmental disaster in the Kerch Strait and the story with the «Azerbaijan Airlines» plane.
Speaking of human and citizen safety in the broad — constitutional — sense, their rights and freedoms are not protected from arbitrary state actions. Including legislative ones: measures regarding the income of «foreign agents» are not just unconstitutional, they directly resemble the gradual but relentless restrictions on the property and labor rights of Jews in Germany in the 1930s. Only in today's Russia, the object of persecution is not an ethnic, but a socio-political group. Although the persecution and restrictions of ethnic groups are a particular pride of the authorities, who have marginalized not only the migrants themselves but also their children, depriving them of the opportunity for socialization and rooting in Russia, which would at least partially solve the problem of labor force shortages and the outflow of the working-age population in about ten years.
And this is only December, the month of disasters, which also included a number of events that are a direct consequence of the «special operation», including obvious signs of impending stagflation due to gigantic military expenditures and imbalances in the economic structure.
At the informal CIS summit, held in the vulgar luxury of the insanely expensive «Igora» resort near St. Petersburg, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan were symbolically absent. One, with all his behavior, shows the meaninglessness of post-imperial organizational structures, especially after the «events» in Nagorno-Karabakh, and is no longer a semi-colonial «strategic partner» of the Putin regime. The other did not appear at the summit, intended once again to show that the master in the imaginary empire is precisely Putin, after the tragic incident with the Azerbaijani plane. Even the «chemistry» between the two autocrats did not help here.
This «chemistry» is just as opportunistic as, for example, in the relations between Putin and Erdogan. Each has its pragmatic interest, but this does not mean that Turkey's basic strategic line changes in any way. And this line is to contain Russia in that part of the geographical map where the Turkish autocrat plays his multi-vector games. Putin insists that the world has become multipolar. And so it is. Moreover, within it, there are several regional orders. And Turkey, within one of the world subregions after Putin's failure in Syria, the break with Armenia, and the generation of threats, including in the southern direction, becomes a quite clear regional leader. Moreover, having a significant influence on the same Azerbaijan.
Where is Putin's pole of influence? With his «special operation», he has alienated many countries of the post-Soviet space. He scared some, like Georgia. He distanced others with his migration policy, like those republics that supplied Russia with labor, and now cannot and, most importantly, do not want to do so. Take, for example, the same Tajikistan, whose autocrat Rahmon, when meeting with Putin, only repeated uninteresting figures of «trade turnover growth» (the same was done by the Russian president). The Kazakh leader weaves fine national lace, switching to the Kazakh language at official events, putting in place the delegation of the country that considers itself the mistress of the geographical expanses of the former USSR.
And these are also direct consequences of the «special operation». As well as the disappearance of any financial safety net: taxpayers' money continues to go to «defense and security» and the suppression of the «fifth column» within the country. That is, to the «security» of the authorities and security forces in their indelicate relations with Russian civil society. Social support — it also mainly concerns those associated with the special military operation. The militarization of everything around does not increase, but greatly weakens the security of Russian citizens.
And this is, perhaps, the main result for Russia in 2024. More precisely, now almost three years of the «special operation», going «according to plan». Just do not compare with the «wild» nineties, which are blamed for everything, including demographic problems. In the nineties, the country had a perspective, now it does not, the country lives in a toxic present, and the future is aborted.
Therefore, no one thinks about the future. And it is no coincidence that the capital of Russia, which had quieted down about two years ago, is celebrating at corporate parties as if for the last time. Its residents congratulate each other on the New Year, hoping that it is not the last.
* Andrey Kolesnikov is considered a «foreign agent» by the Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation.
Photo: Moscow government / Yulia Ivanko.